Conceptual mission design of a minimalistic human Mars flyby in the year 2018

In the context of the Mars Society Student Design Competition, a comprehensive mission and spacecraft design for a human Mars flyby in 2018 is devised. This paper summarizes critical aspects of the mission concept, which was selected from 29 submissions in the final top 5. A narrow time frame combined with missing key technologies such as deep-space radiation protection, long-duration life support systems and affordable, sustainable access to space pose significant challenges to the overall system. The presented work attempts to show how a mission to Mars could be executed realistically by 2018. The systems engineering approach, crucial technologies and programmatic issues such as cost, scheduling and risks are discussed. With only two launches to low Earth orbit, the total mass before trans-Mars injection is below 15 tons while utilizing a modified Dragon capsule and Cygnus module. Required technologies improving access to space were identified and a time schedule was developed that allows for their implementation. Solutions to many of the critical spacecraft systems are introduced through synergies as opposed to brute force technology development. Technologies requiring flight qualification are employed only if inevitable or if they present a considerable advantage. A concept dealing with physical and psychological problems in an isolated and confined environment during the total mission duration of 501 days is presented. The total cost of the mission is estimated using current prices, heritage data and cost models, resulting in 5.2 Billion US Dollars. This represents an upper limit for the current design. Employing risk analysis, dangers originating from technological, human and programmatic issues as well as mitigation techniques are discussed. A realistic mission layout is accomplished with an adequate combination of existing elements, near-term available technologies and development focused on a few vital and promising aspects.