Load reliability analysis using ARMA wind speed modeling

Due to the continuous increase in power demand and fast technological improvements and developments, the future of power systems is expected to be a challenging issue. The integration of new sources and technologies are needed to satisfy the utility requests and to decrease the use of fossil fuel sources. One of the main challenging issues in integrating wind power sources is how to forecast the long-term wind speed and study its impact on the reliability of the load. In this paper, the Auto-Regression and Moving Average (ARMA) model is used to forecast the wind speed for Dhahran area in Saudi Arabia. Then, the wind power is simulated using the speed-power curve. Finally, the impact of the forecasted wind power on the reliability of residential, commercial, and industrial loads is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation.