Impact of wind curtailment and storage on the Irish power system 2020 renewable electricity targets: A free open-source electricity system balancing and market (ESBM) model

The All-island power system, representing the electrical grids of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, has a target of supplying 37% of electricity with wind power by 2020. This presents a considerable integration challenge, in particular associated with the increasing number of periods when there is too much wind power and not enough demand on the system, requiring wind power to be turned off or `curtailed'. The authors previously estimated potential curtailment on the All-island system in 2020 using a novel model. The model was validated using actual wind output and curtailment data from 2011, and produced results for 2020 indicating curtailment levels ranging from 5.6% to 8.5% - consistent with previously published estimates. This paper expands the previously published model to include: simulation of dispatch of conventional generation based on merit order; a representation of variable prices within a wholesale electricity market; and the operation of electrical energy storage within the system. The model is used to estimate the installed wind capacity required to supply 37% of electrical demand and the potential for storage to reduce the capacity required to meet this target. Finally, the model has been adapted to MS Excel and made available to download for free.