A model-based analysis of generation adequacy in interconnected electricity markets

In this paper, the development of an interconnected German and French electricity market until 2030 is analyzed by applying an agent-based simulation model for wholesale electricity markets. National day-ahead markets are modeled and coupled considering limited transmission capacities. The results show that coupling the German and French market areas is effectively contributing to balance extreme load situations. Furthermore, based on the endogenous investment planning, mainly new combined cycle gas turbine plants are installed in Germany and France. However, despite incentives for investors to install new generation capacity, the model results indicate that in the coming years few situations will occur in which the residual demand cannot be fully met. Given the static consideration of the hourly electricity demand, the exchange flows with other countries and hydroelectric plants with seasonally operated reservoirs in this paper, effects and interactions of these flexibility options on the electricity system need to be analyzed in more detail in future research.