A Real-Time Scheme for Validation of an Auto-regressive Time Series Model for Power System Ambient Inter-area Mode Estimation

A lattice time series model may be used to estimate the inter-area electromechanical modes of a power system from measured synchrophasor data. The accuracy of these estimates is sensitive to the order of the model. This paper describes a methodology for real-time, order-recursive whiteness testing of the prediction errors. This hypothesis testing methodology may be used in conjunction with the lattice mode-meter algorithm to validate the model in real-time. Results are presented on a model of the western North American power system.