Methodology for improving subjective R&D estimates

Subjective probability estimates underly many decision techniques and project evaluation methods used in R&D. Recent research efforts of others in the study of subjective probability have resulted in methodological developments that may have useful R&D applications. This paper illustrates how such methods might be applied in an R&D context. It is suggested that such methods may improve personal probability assessments, and, under some circumstances, may be useful in evaluating the relative assessment performances of the different assessors.