Who does not succeed in engineering at the University of Cape Town? What can one tell from the retention rate?

The results of a quantitative investigation into the retention rates of engineering students at the University of Cape Town are presented. The authors show how longitudinal retention studies can be used to monitor the throughput efficiency of university degree programs and to identify groups of students that display poor retention rates over a period of time. Statistical methods are used to identify factors that have a significant effect on retention. The investigation is done in the context of attempts to identify programs that can address the imbalances in the numbers of black engineers as a consequence of their deliberate exclusion under Apartheid. The study focuses on the retention rate of students who registered for their first year between 1988 and 1993. The Academic Support Program for Engineering in Cape Town (ASPECT) was established in 1988 with the aim of increasing the number of black engineering graduates at UCT. Differences in retention rate are explored across factors such as gender, population classification (race), engineering discipline, school-leaving examination and participation in ASPECT. Special attention is paid to the retention rate of African and female engineering students.