The application of State-Space model in Outstanding Claims Reserve

Outstanding Claims Reserve (OCR) is an important part of Reserve in an insurance company, and calculation of the OCR is a crucial job in an insurance company. There are a lot of ways to calculate the OCR, such as chain ladder method, payments per claim finalised, reserve progress method and B-F method. This paper is mainly discussing the application of State-Space Model(SSM) in OCR. Focus on the times of compensation, I use SSM, in which the state equation is based on ARMA model, to calculate the data in the lower triangle of the run-off triangle. In this paper, empirical analysis shows that the SSM after revise could fit the data of upper triangle and estimate the data of lower triangle better, by Kalman Filter Iteration.