Software process simulation is simulation too—What can be learned from other domains of simulation?

Simulation is an important method and tool in many fields of engineering. Compared to these, simulation plays only a minor role in the field of software processes and software engineering. Examining this discrepancy, four theses are formulated as suggestions for future directions of software process simulation: 1. Simulation requires efforts, but “not simulating” might cause considerable costs as well, e.g. by wrong assumptions or expectations. These costs must be addressed and understood as well. 2. A model is always a simplification with many uncertainties. However, this is not a counter-argument by itself but must be evaluated in the perspective of purpose and available alternatives. 3. Future process simulation models must and will be much more complex than today. The necessary complexity can only be handled by relying on a rich set of mature components. This requires a joined effort and appreciation of the respective groundwork. 4. There are areas of software process modelling, which have already achieved some maturity, e.g. the interrelationships of volume of work, productivity, resources, and defect injection and removal. However, there are other aspects, which need further research to develop adequate modeling concepts, e.g. influence of architectural quality on later process stages, influence of process area capabilities within a dynamic simulation, or combined effects of human factors like time pressure, motivation, or knowledge acquisition.