The Study of Model Selection Method on Intelligent Prediction System and Its Applications

With the problem about the forecasters of complex dynamic system how to select the optimal predictive model from so many forecast methods and models, this paper comprehensively applied the method of survey analysis and comparison to find the best point connecting the intelligence forecasting system and complex dynamic system, researched the mechanism of the model selection about Intelligent Forecasting System, and presented the intelligent selection method of oilfield output prediction model for oilfield production forecast system. The idea and method of model selection can be used for other model selection of similar complex systems. The results of this paper can provide theoretical foundation for the study of the oilfield production intelligent forecasting system.