Real-time estimation of the error probability of HF radio links employing coded-modulation

The estimation of the probability of bit error in digital communication systems has received considerable attention over the years. It is not only a measure of the performance of the communication system but also an invaluable feedback parameter for systems using adaptive control strategies. Scholz et al. (1992) proposed a passive technique, which is ideal for this purpose that measures the bit error probability of uncoded systems, in real time, with a very high speed and accuracy. This paper extends that work by estimating the bit error probability of communication systems employing error control coding. We show by analysis and simulation that the performance of the new estimator approaches the minimum variance bound and we contrast this with the performance of earlier techniques.