The activating model of contingency plans within disruptive incidents

Disruptive incidents cause serious influence to our society, and how to deal with them effectively is an important problem for emergency managers. Contingency plans are the efficient methods to cope with disruptive incidents. This paper explores the problem that when the managers activate contingency plans under disruptive incidents. Firstly, we give activate modes of contingency plans; secondly, the activating model which based on real option theory and methods is constructed under the condition that the instantaneous loss caused by emergencies is uncertain; thirdly, we obtain the conditions that the critical instantaneous loss satisfied at the moment contingency plans activated; at last, how the uncertainty influence the critical instantaneous loss is analyzed, which perhaps has the certain enlightenment to emergency decision makers.