Preliminary study on sustainable utilization assessment and its early-warning model for marine fisheries resources in the East China Sea

Since the 90s, the topics about fisheries sustainable development had been carried out by international organizations including FAO and many researchers, especially in the fields of sustainable utilization of fisheries resources (SUFR). However, in this fields, one of the most important and urgent topics is how to evaluate the sustainable level, how to determine the basis, standards and the way to evaluate, and how to build the evaluate framework, so that the fisheries sustainable system is reflected in all dimensions. It is considered that the SUFR is a complicated system which contains economic continuity, resources continuity and social continuity, of which the resources continuity is the most important. The paper primary puts forward the general ways on the synthesis assessment of sustainable use of fisheries resources. The way possess the advantages over the traditional bio-economic models since it fully reflect the system of sustainable use of fisheries resources. The paper takes the fisheries resources in East China Sea from 1978 to 1990 as an example. The results indicates that the level of sustainable use of fisheries resources in East China Sea general falls, the value from 1983 to 1986 locate in the lower level, the value after 1987 improves slowly. The results also reveal that the fishery resource in 1978 has been over-fished and lie in the light warning level. During 1983 and 1990, the fishery resources continue to decline and are located in the higher warning at all. Based on the corrected statistics data from 1991 to 1999 in East China Sea, the paper takes the dynamic early-warning model to analyze the warning of fishery resource. The results also indicate that the fishery resources from 1991 to 1998 are all in the higher warning level, and that in 1999 has been at the edge of highest warning.