A system thinking approach for time dependent availability analysis of multi component systems

The focus of this paper is on the time dependent availability modeling and analysis of repairable multi component systems. Analytical techniques become very complicated and unrealistic especially for modern complex systems. There have been attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using simulation approach for availability analysis of systems. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for the time dependent availability analysis and to study the dynamic behavior of systems. To the best of the authors' knowledge, in the published literature the authors generally assume that repairable systems reach their steady state when operational time reaches infinity. However, in practical situations it is important to know at what time the steady state begins. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to evaluate the time at which repairable multi component systems reach their steady state of operations. The proposed framework is illustrated for multi component systems such as a three component system with one component on standby with a numerical example. The results of the simulation when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach as an alternative approach for the time dependent availability analysis.