Study on the Development of Early Warning Model for Cyber Attack

To know and exactly what's going on in Cyberworld is impossible. Thus, it is also very hard to forecast what is going to happen and what will be the outcome of a certain event. Actually, every manipulating or exploiting of cyber resources is done without any recognition. Thus policy makers currently faces the daunting challenge of identifying the actors responsible for launching politically motivated cyber attacks. However, all human behaviors have a kind of patterns online and offline. This paper is trying to predict politically motivated cyber attack before that attack is happening with these patterns. It only applies to those politically motivated cyber attack because those patterns were motivated political will thus it shows more than technical signals. We've had lots of attacks from many sources without any reasonable purpose. Especially, ROK has been confronted DPRK since it's armistice in 1953. Cyberworld has been the most charming powers of DPRK which doesn't need any powerful and enormous economic and military effects. With this circumstances, we analyze the Moran Model of politically motivated cyber attack and put it 7.7 DDoS attack in 2009. Through this analysis, we try to have one possibility to predict what is going on the Cyberworld.