System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of China's SO2 Emission Trading Policy

Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, we establish a China's SO₂ emission trading policy model which includes SO₂ pollution subsystem, policy implementation subsystem and policy effect of evaluation subsystem, and test the model from historical data and parameter sensitivity. And then, using Vensim software, annual SO₂ emissions and policy effect of SO₂ emission trading are simulated running from 2000 to 2020. The testing results indicate that the model has high precision and accuracy, and simulation results show that the contribution of trading policy to controlling SO₂ emission total amount will increase steadily form 2011, This conclusions will provide decision-making bases for designing and optimizing SO₂ pollution control policies in China.