Analysis of Carbon Emissions from China's Petrochemical Industries Using the LMDI Method

Based on time series decomposition of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the contribution that economic activity, industrial structure and carbon emissions intensity, namely economic activity effects, structural effects and technical effects, make to the change of carbon emissions quantitatively from China's petrochemical industries over the period 1998-2007. The results shows that economic activity is the most important factor to drive carbon emission growth in China's petrochemical industries, however, it is not economic activity that will inevitably lead to carbon emissions growth, structural effects has certain decrement effect to carbon emissions, and technical effects is negative overall , but its volatility is large and without showing any clear decrement effect trend. This study will promote understanding about the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in China's petrochemical industries, and possess valuable reference for making policies about energy saving and emissions reducing.