Application of Kalman filter in agricultural economic forecasting

This paper studies the application of Kalman filter in agricultural economic forecasting. At first it introduces the multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model with the Kalman filter, then gives some knowledge about subjective intervention. At last it gives an application in agricultural economic forecasting. In this example a bivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model is built for the quarterly data about pork production. Kalman filter is applied here to make dynamic forecasting. In addition, the fluctuation in the pork production is analyzed according to the expert's experience. These would help us have deep comprehension about the development of pork production.