Project delay risk analysis in aviation manufacturing enterprise

To deal with the risk of project delay in aviation manufacturing enterprises and with the attempt to give project managers a more accurate understanding of project time scheduling, a novel concept of probability tolerance design is discussed in this article. Probability tolerance design focuses on optimizing the estimation of the task duration tolerance with the consideration of stochastic situations. The key part of the approach, fuzzy real option analysis of the investment decision and Stochastic Critical Path Method is discussed fully in the article and a methodology of simulation is considered to deal with the problem occurred in the calculations.