The Contribution of Logistics Industry to Economic Growth Based on Logis Model

In a study to assess the importance of logistics industry to regional economy, the research probes the special character of logistics industry in different stage. Based on a sample of twenty years (1978-2008) in Henan province, the paper uses a logis model in conjunction with life-cycle theory. The marginal coefficient, elastic coefficient and turning point are evaluated. The results indicate that the logistics industry will step into saturation stage in year 2015. The logistics industry plays a more and more significant role in economic growth, and become the economic backbone of the region. The results also suggest that the elastic coefficient of logistics is 0.98 in 1978, which reaches 1.92 in 2005, and will be 0.78 in 2011. According to lifecycle theory, when the logistics index exceeds the equilibrium (2127.5), the logistics industry could have a zooming effect on economy; contrastively, if the logistics index less than this level, the industry will hinder the whole economy.