Analysis of impact of generating capacity constraints in Mexico's Sistema Interconectado Nacional using equivalent assisting unit approach

This paper presents the results of a reliability analysis of the generation adequacy of the Mexico's Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN), which is comprised of seven interconnected control areas (systems). Analysis was performed taking into account scheduled and forced unit outages, additions of new units, permanent shut down of obsolete units, load demand, additions of new tie lines, and forced outage rates of existing tie lines between areas. 2010 analysis includes the impact of interconnection between Mexico and Guatemala's Power System. Risk indexes -Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and the Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE)- were computed using an analytical (recursive) method and applying the equivalent assisting unit approach. Results of a previous reliability analysis considering SIN as one single area are compared with results considering interconnections between areas.