The Quantitative Evaluation on the Direct Economic Loss Induced by Tropical Cyclones

The evaluation model of the direct economic loss induced by tropical cyclones make landfall over China is discussed. With the observations of tropical cyclones and the socio-economic statistical data during the period from 2004 to 2008, three elements-- the disaster causes, the bearing capacity and the prevention capacity are taken into account to the model which is used by multiple regression methods. The results show that (1) it is reasonable to use those three predictors to build the assessment model, (2) the obtained model can provide a good forecast of the direct economic loss, and (3) this model has a potential value in operation.