Predicting Prefix Availability in the Internet

The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) maintains inter-domain routing information by announcing and withdrawing IP prefixes, possibly resulting in temporary prefix unreachability. Prefix availability observed from different vantage points in the Internet can be lower than standards promised by Service Level Agreements (SLAs). In this paper, we develop a framework for predicting long-term prefix availability, given short-duration prefix information from publicly available BGP routing databases. We compare three prediction models, and find that bagged decision trees perform the best when predicting for long future durations, whereas a simple model works well for short prediction durations. We show that mean time to failure and to recovery outperform past availability in terms of their importance for predicting availability for long durations. We also find that predictability is higher in the year 2009, compared to four years earlier. Our models allow ISPs to adjust BGP routing policies if predicted availability is low, and the models are useful for cloud computing systems, P2P, and VoIP applications.