A Software Project Risk Analysis Model Based on Evidential Reasoning Approach

In this paper, a software project risk analysis model based on evidential reasoning approach is presented. The modeling process consists of four phases: specification of the model structure, assessment of evidence strength, determination of software project risks, and risk monitoring and analysis. Using the changes of strength of evidences obtained from the process of software project development, the model can continually estimate the state of risk, and identify the sources of risk. The model provides a rigorous, structured manner to incorporate relevant software project risk factors and their interrelationships when estimating software project risks.