A Decision-Making Model of Concession Period for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Build-Operate-Transfer Project

Concession period as a key parameter in build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession contract, has been focused on in many studies in recent years. Some risks and uncertainties need to be considered while determining the concession period of BOT projects, typically in such fields as municipal solid waste incineration for generating electricity. This paper presents a decision-making model for concession period of municipal solid waste incineration BOT projects based on Monte Carlo simulation technique and NPV method. With analyzing the key deterministic parameters and uncertain parameters that influenced the decision-making for concession period of municipal solid waste incineration BOT projects, Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to quantify the uncertain parameters, then the interval of concession period for the project can be determined. A numerical example is used to demonstrate the process of decision-making model for concession period of practical municipal solid waste incineration BOT project.