A Study on Progress Risk of IUR Commissioned R&D Project Based on GERT

To study the progress risk of IUR commissioned R&D project, this paper identifies progress risk source first, then forecasts the R&D time required in total by constructing GERT network model of R&D flow. In the quantitative analysis, the mason formula is used to compute the transfer function of the GERT, and the moment generating function is used to compute the probability distribution of the R&D time and costs. This analytical solution is used to describe the risk of the commissioned R&D project. An example is given to illuminate how to use this analytical algorithm in the end.