The UMTS business case in emerging markets economic considerations of network upgrade

With universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS) technology reaching maturity stage, current third generation (3G) mobile network deployment increasingly spreads to developing, "follower" markets; at the same time, technical feasibility issues are gradually replaced by economic considerations. We introduce a technology migration model explaining end-user market behaviour, and propose a modular, structured business modeling approach to simulate the economic impacts of an operator's go/no-go decision regarding new technology network roll-out. Our model is illustrated by applying it to a realistic case based on an emering-market incumbent operator.