Using A Convective Weather Forecast Product to Predict Weather Impact on Air Traffic: Methodology and Comparison with Actual Data

In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying the impact of forecast convective weather on the National Airspace System (NAS). Data generated by a convective forecast product (broad areas, percentage coverage and confidence level) is converted to a format similar to the actual convective weather data (detailed reports on a NAS-wide fine grid). From this, we build a NAS weather impact index showing how the forecast and actual weather might have impacted the air traffic. The aim of the project is to better understand how the accuracy of the weather impact forecast (not just the weather forecast in itself) affects NAS operational response strategies. The results are compared for several convective seasons and typical cases are discussed.