Diagnostics To Prognostics - A Product Availability Technology Evolution

From the customer's perspective, one of the most critical expectations of R&M in the new frontier focuses on product availability and cost of ownership. Whether you consider a personal automobile or a pilot's avionics, it must operate reliably, on demand, at an affordable cost. Consumer products such as automobiles, aircraft engines, medical diagnostic equipment, and computer server farms already employ remote diagnostics to monitor product health and optimize product availability. In this context, the next frontier is to evolve robust diagnostics into maturing prognostics and embed these technologies in our products in the form of health management system (HMS) capabilities. Using health based information for real time mission planning and autonomic maintenance is a key enabler for achieving ultra-reliability and availability in tomorrow's system of systems environment. The problem we face is how to best achieve these HMS capable products in a cost effective manner. Today's robust diagnostic technologies are proving to be key enablers for condition based maintenance, improved fault detection/fault isolation, and lower operational cost. Some success has been realized with the insertion of early prognostic technology, primarily in the area of mechanical PHM applications. By using a systematic methodology to develop, implement, and mature electronic prognostics into the next generation of HMS capable products, we are providing our customers (and most importantly the end user in the field) with new insight into the health and system readiness of our products. Being able to make health based decisions for mission planning, real time operational modes, and just-in-time maintenance will become the key to meeting product availability at an affordable cost