Exploring Risks of Financial Markets through Agent-Based Modeling

To investigate the risks of financial markets is one of the critical issues in risk management. This paper proposes an agent-based model to clarify microscopic and macroscopic links between investor behaviors and price fluctuations in a financial market. The analysis presented in the paper focuses on the role that investors' overconfidence plays in the financial market. From the simulation study of the agent-based virtual market, we have found that (1) overconfident investors emerge in a bottom-up fashion in the market, and (2) these overconfident investors have the ability to contribute to the market, in which the trading prices are coincide with theoretical fundamental values