A Case Study In SISMAUT Using BRAC 2005 Military Value Analysis

The military value assessment conducted as part of the Army portion of the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) 2005 report provides a robust and realistic data set for demonstrating the usefulness and validity of SISMAUT. SISMAUT is a software tool built in Excel-VBA that implements the iterative methodology developed for the imprecisely specified multi-attribute utility theory (ISMAUT) with a simulation foundation. Many decision analysis techniques require cognitive gymnastics of decision makers that do not take advantage of the innate judgment abilities of human beings. ISMAUT attempts to harness the intuition of decision makers by allowing for behaviorally relevant preference statements that are translated into mathematical dominance relationships. These relationships drive the decision aiding technique that informs decision makers as to the implications of the preferences. Also, most methods in decision analysis result in an array of attribute weights. In this case study, the judgment of decision makers apparent in the organization of Army installation military value attributes becomes the preference inputs used to demonstrate the various decision aiding capabilities of SISMAUT. The iterative nature, simplicity, and flexibility of SISMAUT are also demonstrated with different manipulations of the BRAC data set according to military value capability, sub-capability, and attribute weighting