Failure prediction methodology calculations can mislead: use them wisely, not blindly

The authors describe the cost of current misuses of FPM (failure prediction methodology), and present measures to develop and use more efficient engineering approaches. It is noted that the cost of the misuse of FPM can be quite high in terms of dollar cost, increased complexity, and acceptance of low reliability, but can be significantly reduced by the use of information from other sources when available. Case histories are presented to show that attention to detail and to possibilities for improvement can result in performance levels far beyond those predicted by FPM calculations. It is concluded that some cost-effective designs can be effectively prevented from application because of low expectations tabulated in FPM. It is suggested that assessing future failures on the basis that all failures can be corrected if adequately diagnosed, and that a management plan for reliability growth is a necessary ingredient, could lead to more enlightened approaches to reliability programs.<>