Optical or magnetic drives-which way is the mass storage market going?

The mass storage market for worldwide end-user systems is predicted to grow from $28.6 B in 1986 to $46.5 B by 1990, according to various market surveys. If one divides the market into Winchester drives, floppy drives, tapes and optical devices; in 1986 they shared the market, with Winchester drives taking $20.6 B, floppy disks at $4.1 B, tapes at $2.9 B and optical devices only $0.2 B. By 1990, Winchester drives will have grown to $32.6 B, floppy disks to $7.4 B, tapes only to $3.2 B, but optical devices to $3.2 B. Winchester drives will have a compound annual growth rate increase of 12%, and optical devices a growth rate of 103%. The tremendous growth predicted for optical drives has only started in 1988/9, which means 1990 will see very aggressive production schedules from several manufacturers around the world.<>