The boot-strap parametrisation of a simple archaeological model

The article presents a model of the population dynamics of an unexploited herd of ibex living in Northwest Greece 18000 years ago. It uses birth and infant mortality rates from modern goats as an approximation to past values because they seem remarkably consistent across a range of environments. These animals would have achieved about 0.75 breeding events per mature female per year. In mountainous regions, each event would produce 1 offspring, in lowland regions, 2 offspring. There would be an infant mortality of 20-30%. These data can only be used to simulate the dynamics of unexploited populations if figures for adult mortality rates can be had, but there are no extant populations that are neither managed nor exploited in some way. The dynamics of unexploited populations are of particular interest because they can be used to investigate the amount of predation a population could sustain without becoming dynamically unstable.<>