Understanding the diffusion rate of new products through a simple customer behavior model

This paper presents a generic mathematical model for depicting the diffusion of an innovative product on a given market. Our approach relies on a probabilistic modeling of each customer behavior with respect to the commercial process which is used to promote such products. We introduce in particular the concept of coherent market that corresponds to a market which can be analyzed in a uniform way within our model. This last notion allows us to recover the main classical empirical results that were discovered and widely studied by E.M. Rogers and his school. We explain finally how to use our approach as a support for analytic predictive marketing.