A method for composite power system expansion planning considering probabilistic reliability criteria

This paper proposes a method for choosing the best composite power system expansion plan considering a probabilistic reliability criterion. The proposed method minimizes the investment budget (economics) for constructing new transmission lines subject to deterministic (demand constraint) and probabilistic reliability criteria (LOLE/sub R/), while considering the uncertainties of system elements. It models the power system expansion problem as an integer programming one. The method solves for the optimal strategy using a probabilistic theory-based branch and bound method that utilizes a network flow approach and the maximum flow-minimum cut set theorem. The proposed method is applied to the MRBTS and the test results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable for solving the power system expansion planning problem subject to practical future uncertainties.