Evaluation of probability distributions of reliability indices in a multi bilateral contracts market

In a bilateral contracts market while selecting contracts to meet their reliability requirements, probability distributions of load point reliability indices considering multi-bilateral contracts with Gencos can provide useful information for the customers. This paper utilizes the modeling of each bilateral contract as an ETMG (equivalent time varying multi-state generation) to evaluate the load point reliability. The priority order in which the generating companies serve various contracts in case of generator outages is considered in modeling the ETMG. A procedure to determine the probability distributions of reliability indices based on the ETMG at various customer load points is proposed. A test system has been analyzed to illustrate the procedure and also the factors that affect the load point reliability.