Cost based failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for systems of accelerator magnets

The proposed Next Linear Collider (NLC) has a proposed 85% overall availability goal, the availability specifications for all its 7200 magnets and their 6167 power supplies are 97.5% each. Thus all of the electromagnets and their power supplies must be highly reliable or quickly repairable. Improved reliability or repairability comes at a higher cost. We have developed a set of analysis procedures for magnet designers to use as they decide how much effort to exert, i.e. how much money to spend, to improve the reliability of a particular style of magnet. We show these procedures being applied to a standard SLAC electromagnet design in order to make it reliable enough to meet the NLC availability specs. First, empirical data from SLAC's accelerator failure database plus design experience are used to calculate MTBF for failure modes identified through a FMEA. Availability for one particular magnet can be calculated. Next, labor and material costs to repair magnet failures are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the total cost of all failures over a 30-year lifetime. Opportunity costs are included. Engineers choose from amongst various designs by comparing lifecycle costs.