Understanding Lightning Dynamics for Enhanced Early Warning Systems: Insights from Indian Case Studies

This study investigates two significant lightning-related disasters in India: one in Odisha during the monsoon season of September 2023 and another in Gujarat in late November 2023, a period typically marked by infrequent lightning. Real-time observations from the ground-based Lightning Location Network (LLN) sensors and the INSAT 3D satellite revealed that cloud top brightness temperatures (CTBT) plummeted below 70 °C during these events, indicating the presence of towering cloud activity. ERA5 reanalysis data highlighted an increase in cloud ice water content, emphasizing the pivotal role of cloud microphysics in lightning formation. Interestingly, elevated Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is strongly associated with lightning activity in Odisha but not in Gujarat, driven by interactions between synoptic-scale weather systems, underscoring the contrasting seasonal mechanisms driving these events. This study provides critical insights into the diverse physical processes behind lightning-related disasters in the Indian subcontinent. It emphasizes integrating detailed cloud properties and varying meteorological factors into predictive models to significantly enhance lightning forecasting and early warning systems in India.