Travel Time and Weather-Aware Traffic Forecasting in a Conformal Graph Neural Network Framework

Traffic flow forecasting is essential for managing congestion, improving safety, and optimizing various transportation systems. However, it remains a prevailing challenge due to the stochastic nature of urban traffic and environmental factors. Better predictions require models capable of accommodating the traffic variability influenced by multiple dynamic and complex interdependent factors. In this work, we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework to address the stochasticity by leveraging adaptive adjacency matrices using log-normal distributions and Coefficient of Variation (CV) values to reflect real-world travel time variability. Additionally, weather factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation adjust edge weights and enable GNN to capture evolving spatio-temporal dependencies across traffic stations. This enhancement over the static adjacency matrix allows the model to adapt effectively to traffic stochasticity and changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, we utilize the Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) framework to provide reliable uncertainty quantification, achieving target coverage while maintaining acceptable prediction intervals. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, in comparison with baseline methods, showed better prediction accuracy and uncertainty bounds. We, then, validate this method by constructing traffic scenarios in SUMO and applying Monte-Carlo simulation to derive a travel time distribution for a Vehicle Under Test (VUT) to reflect real-world variability. The simulated mean travel time of the VUT falls within the intervals defined by INRIX historical data, verifying the model’s robustness.