Short-Term Forecasting of PV Production Using Parametric and Nonparametric Methods

Recently, photovoltaic production has been attracting more and more users due to their environmental and technical merits. With the continuous increase of PV systems, high-precision PV power prediction is important for both owners and power system operators in order to minimize technical and economic risks. In this way, this article compares parametric and non-parametric methods to predict the output PV power in a very short-term (with a time horizon of $\mathbf{1 5}$ minutes). Both methods were evaluated in real-time on a 15 kW photovoltaic power production located in Portugal.