Vietnam's Net Zero Ambition: An Emissions Data Analysis and Policy Assessment Towards Achieving Carbon Neutrality

This paper delivers a detailed assessment of Vietnam's pathway toward its 2050 Net Zero target. It conducts an indepth analysis of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2000 to 2022 and provides a critical evaluation of the current national climate policy framework. The research pinpoints key drivers and trends across primary sectors, including energy, industry, agriculture, and transport. The results indicate a consistent upward emissions trajectory, with an average annual growth of approximately 4%, largely fueled by fossil fuel consumption in the energy and industrial sectors. Findings reveal a persistent upward trend in national emissions, averaging approximately 4% annual growth over the analyzed period, primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion in the energy and industrial sectors. This trajectory underscores a significant gap compared to the required decarbonization pathway for Net Zero. A policy gap analysis highlights the need for strengthening implementation mechanisms, particularly for carbon pricing, accelerating renewable energy deployment beyond current targets (e.g., the Power Development Plan VIII goal of 31-39% renewables by 2030), enhancing energy efficiency, and establishing robust regulations for industrial and transport emissions. Based on this analysis, the paper proposes a strategic roadmap emphasizing accelerated sectoral transitions, technological innovation, strengthened governance, scaled-up climate finance, and enhanced international cooperation. Urgent and decisive action across all sectors is crucial for Vietnam to navigate the complexities of this transition and achieve its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.