Matchmaking Beyond Elo: Why Teams are More Than the Sum of Individual Skill

Effective matchmaking in online multiplayer games is essential for ensuring balanced competition and player satisfaction. Traditional rating systems primarily assess individual skill but overlook social and coordination-based factors that influence team performance. In this study, we adapt the team player effect (TPE)—a metric derived from residual-based estimation—to quantify a player's consistent ability to enhance team performance beyond their technical skill. Originally studied in economics and organizational science, the TPE captures systematic contributions to teamwork that extend beyond task proficiency. Using a large-scale dataset from Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition, we demonstrate that incorporating TPE and team familiarity significantly improves match outcome prediction compared to Elo-based benchmarks. Our results indicate that the importance of TPE increases with team size, suggesting its relevance in facilitating coordination in larger teams. Our findings suggest that accounting for TPE can enhance the fairness and competitiveness of team-based matchmaking across various game environments.