NATO at a Cross-Road between Space and Cyber Threats: A Legal, Policy and Operational Assessment of the Way Forward

This paper explores the critical interplay between the space and cyber domains and its implications for NATO's collective defence framework in the context of 21st-century security dynamics. The increasing integration of space and digital technologies has not only transformed the geopolitical landscape but also introduced complex vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the rising frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks targeting space systems. Despite NATO's recognition of cyberspace (2014) and space (2019) as operational domains, the Alliance's approach remains fragmented, with limited integration and coordination between these two interconnected areas. This analysis will assess NATO's evolving policies, highlighting the earlier institutionalization of cyberspace as a core collective defence priority compared to space, which only achieved similar recognition in 2021. Nevertheless, NATO's framework for space remains cautious, constrained by its dependence on Member States' capabilities and the dual-use nature of space infrastructure. This study identifies significant gaps in legal frameworks, political consensus and operational coordination, particularly in establishing thresholds for invoking collective self-defence in response to cyberattacks on space systems. Likewise, from a legal perspective, this paper examines the challenges of applying international law to cyber threats in space, focusing on issues such as defining thresholds for the activation of Article 5. From a political perspective, it underscores the complexities of achieving consensus among Member States and maintaining NATO's credibility in addressing cyber threats to space assets. Operationally, it reveals deficiencies in command structures, technological asymmetries and the lack of cross-domain integration. Recommendations include the establishment of clearer thresholds for activating collective self-defence, cross-domain simulation exercises and standardized security practices to enhance NATO's resilience and adaptability in addressing the threats posed by the increasingly interconnected space-cyber environment.