Climate Variability and Its Impact on Flood Risk in the Vjosa River Basin: An Analysis of Precipitation Trends and Vulnerability

This paper analyzes climate variability and its impact on flood risks in the Vjosa River basin. It first provides an overview of the current water flow situation in the Vjosa River and the natural disasters that have occurred in the area during the analyzed period. Precipitation is identified as the primary cause of flooding in the basin. The distribution of precipitation over the years is examined, and an analysis of anomalies reveals that since 2000, the river basin has experienced a period of increased precipitation. Vulnerability to flooding in the basin has grown significantly, considering physical, social, economic, and environmental factors. The methodology employed in this paper relies on detailed data analysis. Historical disaster data are analyzed using the DesInventar methodology, developed by UNISDR and implemented in Albania in 2013 [16]. This methodology is a key component of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), which is to be adopted by all UN member states [2]. The results of the analysis highlight the most affected areas by the municipality. Furthermore, as maximum precipitation values continue to rise, an increase in flood frequency in the river basin is anticipated.