Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties

The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.