Assessing the Relevance of Scores in Table Tennis: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence

The score is an indispensable element in competitive sports, playing a crucial role in determining the outcome of a match. However, the importance of scores in table tennis remains unexplored, as the hundreds of possible score scenarios in a single set make it especially challenging to assess their significance scientifically. This study is the first attempt to quantify the relevance of all possible scores in table tennis matches through probabilistic computing and empirical verification. Depending on the overall winning probability, relevance values were determined for the 121 possible scores. An extensive dataset consisting of 1,364 matches and 103,772 individual scores from top-level table tennis was examined to test the empirical winning probabilities of each score. The results highlight a significant correlation between the theoretical score relevance and players’ empirical winning probabilities. Winners perform better at more relevant scores, such as close scores or crunch time, with this trend being more pronounced among male players. Z-tests were used to identify scores with positive or negative deviations from the average scoring rate. Individual players show considerable variation in scoring performance across different score situations. These findings provide significant implications for players’ training and competition. The approach presented in this study can also be applied to other scoring games and sports.