Achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2060: The Role of Nuclear and Renewable Energy in Indonesia’s Energy Transition

Indonesia has committed to achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or earlier in response to the Paris Agreement. Demand growth and Indonesia’s reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, are driving the country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and expedite its transition to cleaner energy sources. The purpose of this study is to examine Indonesia’s potential and opportunities for decarbonization in the energy sector and to identify other approaches for the country’s energy transition. This study utilized the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) with the clicSAND interface as a tool for long-term modeling. The aim was to compare power generation capacity, investment, and CO2 emissions across three different scenarios. The three scenarios include business as usual, coal phase-out 2045, and net zero emission scenarios depending on national targets. These scenarios were simulated in different years with varying aims and were optimized accordingly. The findings indicate that the net zero emission scenario yields lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions and is more economically efficient compared to the other scenarios. The results show that the net zero emission scenario produces much lower CO2 emissions (25,957 MtCO2), which is less than the coal phase-out scenario (45,266 MtCO2) at similar costs (4315 and 4344 billion USD). This study argues that the utilization of widespread new and renewable energy and the gradual elimination of coal are crucial tactics to expedite the shift toward sustainable energy and attain a state of zero net emissions by the year 2060.