Investigating Eskom's declining System Inertia and eliminating Load-shedding in South Africa by 2030

This study explores Eskom's System Inertia in the context of a declining Energy Availability Factor (EAF) and an ageing coal fleet and the associated implications for eliminating load-shedding in South Africa by 2030. A detailed examination of Eskom’s operational data, Integrated Resource Plans, and scholarly publications provide sufficient information to model and analyse future scenarios. Using Excel-based models to forecast 2030 scenarios and DIgSILENT PowerFactory, this study demonstrates that an EAF above 71% could eliminate load-shedding. However, maintaining grid stability amid increasing non-synchronous renewable integration requires further measures, especially to address declining system inertia. These findings underscore the importance of strategic investments and policy coordination to ensure a stable energy transition in South Africa.