Estimation of Peak Demand Reduction Using Smart Thermostats: A Texas Case Study

This paper presents an empirical data-driven approach to estimating the potential of peak demand reduction with smart thermostats in the residential sector in Texas. A bottom-up approach is devised to aggregate from individual households' peak load reduction due to smart thermostats installation into a state-wide peak demand reduction. The uncertainty of the peak demand reduction is also quantified through a range of scenarios assuming varying levels of customer participation and number of installed smart thermostats. This research provides a robust estimate of the substantial capacity for peak demand reduction due to the rolling out of smart thermostats. It also offers unique insights to policy makers in terms of realistic and scalable adoption of demand response programs in regional power grids. While the study focuses on Texas, this approach is generalizable towards other regional power systems as well.